Tens-of-thousands of jobs are set to be lost in east London if Britain crashes out of the EU without an ‘exit’ deal, top university economists are warning.
A study of the Brexit effect on MPs constituencies names Poplar and Limehouse the third worst hit in the country—with Canary Wharf losing its place as Europe’s financial ‘power house’.
The ‘no deal’ scenario will cost 750,000 workers in Britain their jobs, the UK trade policy study by Sussex University warns.
Poplar and Limehouse, which includes Canary Wharf, is set to lose almost 8,000 jobs alone, while City and Westminster faces by far the worst loss of 42,400.
Canary Wharf Group which runs the financial services and business district is publicly against quitting Europe, while all economic forecasts say Britain will be poorer outside the EU than if we remained.
Another 1,800 people living in Poplar, Limehouse and the Isle of Dogs who work elsewhere would also be forced on the dole, according to the analysis by the university’s Dr Ilona Serwicka and Prof Alan Winters.
“Our research makes it clear that any Brexit, particularly ‘no deal’, will have a negative impact the length and breadth of Britain,” Dr Serwicka said.
“It’s not certain these losses will definitely happen, as employers may choose to reduce hours or wages rather than cut their workforce.
“But our analysis shows which areas of the country will take the biggest hits.”
Second worst loss would be Holborn and St Pancras with 10,050 jobs gone, particularly the legal profession, while Bermondsey constituency which includes City Hall near Tower Bridge is seventh worst off with 6,200 lost.
The “devastating” effect is caused by the high density of jobs and the impact on the financial sector without a deal, the findings show.
Prof Winters said: “MPs will have difficult decisions to make about any withdrawal agreement, knowing livelihoods of their constituents rest in their hands.”
This includes Prime Minister Theresa May’s Maidenhead constituency which faces 1,700 being thrown out of work, bringing the threat close to home as she faces a possible party leadership challenge tonight in Tory ranks.
A ballot on whether to oust the PM takes place after her crucial speech to try and prop up her Brussels deal, warning that it could lead to Brexit “being delayed or prevented”.
Other top 10 worst hit constituencies on Sussex University’s ‘doom’ list are in Manchester, Glasgow, Islington, Birmingham, Leeds and Bristol.
Even outspoken Brexit champion Jacob Rees-Mogg’s North East Somerset constituency doesn’t escape, facing nearly 1,000 job losses.
The economic analysis warns of a three per cent loss in the value of UK goods and services in any one year at best—while the government’s own estimates are said to be twice that.
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